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Technically, the beat the when the two last met in Foxboro. But I say technically because when the Patriots hosted Buffalo in last year's regular-season finale, they had already wrapped up the AFC's top seed.As a result, played just five series in a game that saw New England coast before pulling several key starters -- including Brady, , , and -- for most if not all of the second half.So yes, the Bills did technically win that game 17-9, but the reality is Buffalo hasn't defeated its division rival in a meaningful road game since Nov. 5, 2000, when Steve Christie tied New England with a 48-yard field goal with four seconds left before winning it with a 32-yarder in overtime at the old Foxboro Stadium.Fifteen years later, at a new venue and with completely different rosters, the Bills will look to Landry Shamet Jersey find some of that magic again Monday night. It won't be easy: That Pats team was 2-6 and this one is 9-0. But at least the banged-up Patriots will be without several key cogs, including some of the guys listed above. And hey, if the can beat the at Lambeau, anything can happen.Using numbers to tell the story, here's what to expect Monday night at Gillette Stadium.1. Turnover trends favor the BillsKey stat: After committing just three turnovers in their first seven games, the Patriots have turned it over four times in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Bills registered a season-high four takeaways in Week 10.Does that mean the somewhat depleted Pats offense is becoming sloppier? Or was that a rough patch and they'll get back on track in prime time?And does that mean the Bills -- who were one of three teams with 30 or more takeaways last season -- are starting to find a groove when it comes to being opportunistic? Or was that just a fortuitous game against a mistake-prone team? Brady committed three of New England's four turnovers against Washington and the , throwing two interceptions and losing a fumble, while the Bills intercepted twice and forced two fumbles (one on special teams).Brady's first interception (against Washington) came when he simply and uncharacteristically failed to see a linebacker underneath in the red zone. Strangely, his second pick (against the Giants) also came in the red zone, and he also looked as though he was trying to do too much on D'Angelo Russell Jersey a strip sack. Both of those miscues came in the fourth quarter, so Brady really is lucky his team wasn't haunted by them.If indeed the Pats -- who won't have top receiver for quite a while -- continue to make those types of mistakes Monday night, a Bills team that has the third-highest takeaway total in football dating back to the start of 2014 might be capable of making them pay dearly. Most takeaways since the start of 2014RankTeamTakeaways1Giants492483Bills4646545Entering Week 112. This game features two of the three highest-rated pa sers in footballKey stat: While Brady has the league's highest quarterback rating (111.1), of the Bills has completed a league-high 70.5 percent of his pa ses.NFL's highest-rated pa sers, Weeks 1-10RankPlayerTeamCompletion %TD-INTYPARating1Tom BradyPatriots67.824-38.2111.1264.023-78.9108.03Tyrod TaylorBills70.511-48.2106.2466.218-58.2104.65Packers63.321-37.3103.4Yes, Brady rightly gets a hell of a lot more attention, but this really could be a stellar quarterback matchup because Taylor -- albeit within a much smaller sample size of just seven starts -- has been lighting it up.Prior to this season, the five-year veteran had never started a game in the NFL. But beyond midseason, he's been one of the most consistent, accurate pa sers in football. And the numbers show he gets better as games progre s.Problem is, so does Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot Jersey Brady ...Highest-rated fourth-quarter pa sers, Weeks 1-10RankPlayerTeamCompletion %TD-INTYPARating1Tom BradyPatriots72.49-19.5131.52Tyrod TaylorBills69.85-19.8130.33Carson PalmerCardinals66.78-18.6122.24Aaron RodgersPackers65.97-17.9111.85Andy DaltonBengals66.26-28.6108.8Min. 30 attempts3. This could actually be a defensive battleKey stat: The Patriots have the league's No. 1 run defense and entered Week 11 ranked second in football with 30 sacks, while the Bills have given up 17 or Rodions Kurucs Jersey fewer points a league-best five times.All this talk so far has been about Brady's MVP-caliber numbers and Taylor breaking out within Buffalo's revamped offense, but the truth is both of these teams are pretty superb defensively. In fact, entering Week 11, only the Bengals, and had allowed fewer points per game than the Pats (18.8). New England also has the league's fourth-highest sack rate (7.8) and has surrendered a league-low 88.0 rushing yards per game.Of course, it's easy to succeed in those last two areas when your offense is spotting you big leads. But rate-based stats don't lie quite as easily as cumulative stats, and only nine defenses have posted stronger opposing yards-per-attempt averages.Besides, five of New England's nine victories have come by a single score, so it's not as though they've been running away with every game. Keyed by NFL sack leader , who along with and Jamie Collins leads one of the best front sevens in football, this unit is legit. Who needs or Darrelle Revis?On the flip side, the Bills defense doesn't rank as highly as it did during a dominant 2014 campaign, but the talent is still there and they've been getting better after surrendering 40 points to the Pats in Week 2. Since then, Buffalo has allowed 17 or fewer points four times.These two defenses have given up only eight 40-yard plays combined (five for Buffalo, three for New England), which places them in the top 10 and well ahead of the league average of 9.0 per team.I know these teams combined for 72 points in Week 2, but don't look for an encore of that shootout in Week 11. 4. Pats could frequently use backs as receiversKey stat: When defending against running backs in the pa sing game, Buffalo's Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) of 33.7 percent in the NFL.The Bills have surrendered an average of 54.1 receiving yards per game to opposing backs, Nicolas Claxton Jersey which is bad but not terrible. The reason their DVOA is so bad is because they've had trouble with some non-traditional pa s-catching backs and have given up some particularly big plays to backs in the pa sing game.Three of the six longest completions against Buffalo |
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发表于 2023-6-7 11:57:19